A Bigger Oil Crisis Than the 1970s – IEA Warning (The Full Truth) How did it start?

The Iran conflict that began in late February 2026 shook the entire world's oil market. In response to attacks by Israel and America, Iran almost completely halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — the same waterway through which about 20% of the world's oil and gas supply passes.

IEA Chief's Shocking Warning

International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Fatih Birol said in April 2026 that this crisis is bigger than the three major energy crises of 1973, 1979, and 2022 combined. According to him:

• In the oil crises of 1973 and 1979, the world together suffered a loss of about 10 million barrels per day

• But in this 2026 crisis, the world is losing 13 million barrels per day — meaning more than both previous crises combined

Birol said clearly: "We are facing the biggest energy security threat in history," and added that the situation is getting worse every day. He warned that developing countries will be hit the hardest — through rising inflation and spikes in oil and food prices.

How High Did Oil Prices Go?

During the crisis, massive fluctuations were seen in prices:

• May 2026: Brent crude reached $110 per barrel, Trump said "clock is ticking"

• Some experts had warned that if Hormuz remained closed for 6-8 weeks, prices could go up to $150-200 per barrel

• Brent had even gone above its peak of $126

Is This Crisis Still Ongoing?

Here there's a twist in the story — conditions improved somewhat in the summer. Hormuz traffic began to normalize, and analysts cut their oil price forecasts for 2026 to $84.50 per barrel (Brent) — because geopolitical tensions were decreasing.

But this calm didn't last long. In September 2026, strikes between the US and Iran began once again — this conflict is now in its seventh month. As of September 3, 2026, Brent crude was around $95, and the number of ships passing through Hormuz remained well below normal due to fear of arrest — only 4 ships, compared to a 10-day average of 13.

The Real Issue — Not Just Oil

Birol also pointed out that this is not just an oil crisis, but a broader crisis extending to petrochemicals, fertilizers, and helium supply chains. In his words, it is a combined form of "two oil crises and one gas crash."

The Bottom Line — What's Next?

Currently, the situation remains "contested" — meaning uncertain — not completely closed, but not normal either. Analysts believe that if conditions worsen again, there could be an immediate 15-25% spike in prices. Countries like the UAE are building new pipelines to bypass Hormuz, but these are not yet capable of handling the full demand.

So the truth is: the crisis is not as terrible as it was in April, but the danger has not passed — it has only calmed down a bit.